FC Barcelona — Rayo Vallecano: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 97.4% |
| 12 | 93.8% | |
| X2 | 8.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.8% / 1.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 44.2% / 55.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.08.2026
FC Barcelona
4th place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.08.2026 home Ath Bilbao 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Elche 5:0
- 23.05.2026 away Valencia 1:3
- 17.05.2026 home Betis 3:1
- 13.05.2026 away Alaves 0:1
Rayo Vallecano
17th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home Alaves 1:1
- 15.08.2026 away Sevilla 1:2
- 23.05.2026 away Alaves 2:1
- 17.05.2026 home Villarreal 2:0
- 14.05.2026 away Valencia 1:1
This season: FC Barcelona at home vs Rayo Vallecano away
| Metric | FC Barcelona · at home | Rayo Vallecano · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.91 | 1.89 |
| xG against per match | 0.25 | 2.19 |
| Shots on target per match | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 FC Barcelona 1:0 Rayo Vallecano
- 31.08.2025 Rayo Vallecano 1:1 FC Barcelona
- 17.02.2025 FC Barcelona 1:0 Rayo Vallecano
- 27.08.2024 Rayo Vallecano 1:2 FC Barcelona
- 19.05.2024 FC Barcelona 3:0 Rayo Vallecano
- 25.11.2023 Rayo Vallecano 1:1 FC Barcelona
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Barcelona go into this LaLiga meeting with a clear qualitative advantage over Rayo Vallecano. The available assessment rates the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence behind a home victory. That suggests the main focus is likely to be whether FC Barcelona can impose their superiority early and turn it into a comfortable margin, while Rayo Vallecano will need to resist sustained pressure and make the most of their opportunities.
The scoring outlook points toward a high-scoring match, although the possibility of both teams finding the net is considered evenly balanced. The most likely scorelines are 3:0, 4:0 and 2:0, all of which reflect a controlled home performance with FC Barcelona producing the greater attacking threat. Rayo Vallecano remain capable of influencing the rhythm of the game, but the overall signal favours the hosts across both the result and the expected attacking pattern.
What matters before kick-off
Barcelona's strong start
FC Barcelona enter Matchday 3 of LaLiga having won their opening two league fixtures without conceding a goal, including a 2-0 victory over Athletic Club.
New head coach for Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano appointed Beñat San José as their new head coach ahead of the campaign following the departure of former manager Íñigo Pérez.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.