CA Osasuna — Getafe CF: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.3% |
| 12 | 67.4% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 39.7% / 60.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 60.8% / 39.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 32.4% / 67.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.7% / 98.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA Osasuna go into this LaLiga meeting with a slight but meaningful edge over Getafe CF. The assessment points toward a match in which the home side is more likely to avoid defeat, with the draw remaining a realistic outcome. That gives CA Osasuna the stronger overall position, although the margin between the teams is not expected to produce an open or one-sided contest.
The game is projected to be low-scoring, with limited room for either attack to establish sustained superiority. A clean sheet is considered likely, which further supports a cautious reading of the fixture and makes defensive organisation particularly important. Getafe CF may be able to keep the contest close, but the available signals favour CA Osasuna in the combined home win or draw outcome. The most plausible pattern is therefore a tight match decided by small details, with a narrow home advantage rather than a confident expectation of a clear victory.
What matters before kick-off
Getafe qualified for Conference League phase
Getafe CF secured their place in the UEFA Conference League phase after defeating Partizan Belgrade 4-3 on aggregate, despite a 2-1 second-leg loss on 27 August 2026.
Osasuna secured away win against Celta Vigo
CA Osasuna enter the fixture following a 2-1 away victory over Celta Vigo in LaLiga on 27 August 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.