RC Deportivo de La Coruna — Valencia CF: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.3% |
| 12 | 67.1% | |
| X2 | 63.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.8% / 80.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
RC Deportivo de La Coruna and Valencia CF appear evenly matched ahead of their LaLiga meeting. The available assessment points to a low-scoring contest, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That balance suggests the match could be shaped by small details, such as which team manages possession more effectively and avoids opening spaces in a cautious game.
The most plausible scenarios include a 1-1 draw, a goalless stalemate, or a narrow 1-0 win for RC Deportivo de La Coruna. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the game may remain tight from start to finish rather than develop into an open exchange. With moderate confidence, the main lean is toward the home team avoiding defeat, while the evenly matched profile keeps a draw firmly in consideration. Valencia CF will still have a realistic opportunity if they can make their limited attacking moments count.
What matters before kick-off
Opening League Form
Deportivo La Coruna started their LaLiga season with back-to-back 1-1 draws against Elche and Malaga. Valencia are also looking for their first victory after a 0-0 draw with Celta Vigo and a 1-0 defeat to Real Betis.
Head-to-Head History
Valencia are undefeated in their last five LaLiga encounters against Deportivo La Coruna, recording three wins and two draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.