Deportivo Alaves — Villarreal CF: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.0% |
| 12 | 72.8% | |
| X2 | 70.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.0% / 20.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.2% / 66.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.08.2026
Deportivo Alaves
6th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Vallecano 1:1
- 15.08.2026 home Getafe 3:0
- 23.05.2026 home Vallecano 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Oviedo 1:0
- 13.05.2026 home Barcelona 1:0
Villarreal CF
10th place · 2 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Ath Madrid 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Santander 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Ath Madrid 5:1
- 17.05.2026 away Vallecano 0:2
- 13.05.2026 home Sevilla 2:3
This season: Deportivo Alaves at home vs Villarreal CF away
| Metric | Deportivo Alaves · at home | Villarreal CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.93 | 2.13 |
| xG against per match | 0.24 | 1.33 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.00 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.03.2026 Deportivo Alaves 1:1 Villarreal CF
- 10.01.2026 Villarreal CF 3:1 Deportivo Alaves
- 08.03.2025 Deportivo Alaves 1:0 Villarreal CF
- 09.11.2024 Villarreal CF 3:0 Deportivo Alaves
- 10.02.2024 Deportivo Alaves 1:1 Villarreal CF
- 22.10.2023 Villarreal CF 1:1 Deportivo Alaves
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Deportivo Alaves face Villarreal CF in a LaLiga match where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with room for uncertainty. The overall assessment does not suggest a one-sided encounter, and Deportivo Alaves should have a realistic opportunity to stay competitive on their home ground.
The match is expected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That profile makes a balanced game or a narrow Villarreal CF victory the main possibilities, while a draw also fits the available signals. The X2 market indication supports the view that Villarreal CF are less likely to lose, but it does not remove the prospect of a closely fought match.
What matters before kick-off
Early season form
Deportivo Alavés opened their 2026-27 LaLiga campaign with four points from two matches, securing a 3-0 victory over Getafe followed by a 1-1 draw against Rayo Vallecano.
Villarreal's draw streak
Villarreal CF started their league season with back-to-back 2-2 draws against Racing Santander and Atlético Madrid.
Away head-to-head record
Villarreal CF have not won an away match against Deportivo Alavés since January 2020.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.