Deportivo Alaves — Villarreal CF: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.0% |
| 12 | 72.8% | |
| X2 | 70.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.0% / 20.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.2% / 66.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Deportivo Alaves face Villarreal CF in a LaLiga match where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with room for uncertainty. The overall assessment does not suggest a one-sided encounter, and Deportivo Alaves should have a realistic opportunity to stay competitive on their home ground.
The match is expected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That profile makes a balanced game or a narrow Villarreal CF victory the main possibilities, while a draw also fits the available signals. The X2 market indication supports the view that Villarreal CF are less likely to lose, but it does not remove the prospect of a closely fought match.
What matters before kick-off
Early season form
Deportivo Alavés opened their 2026-27 LaLiga campaign with four points from two matches, securing a 3-0 victory over Getafe followed by a 1-1 draw against Rayo Vallecano.
Villarreal's draw streak
Villarreal CF started their league season with back-to-back 2-2 draws against Racing Santander and Atlético Madrid.
Away head-to-head record
Villarreal CF have not won an away match against Deportivo Alavés since January 2020.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.