Racing Santander — Elche CF: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.4% / 16.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.9% / 39.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.6% / 61.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.0% / 79.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.0% / 90.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Racing Santander have a slight edge over Elche CF in this LaLiga meeting, although the outlook still leaves room for a competitive contest. The available assessment points towards the home side being better placed, but not to an entirely one-sided match. Elche CF should have opportunities to remain involved, particularly if the game develops at the expected attacking pace.
The match is projected to be high-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. The most plausible scorelines indicate a narrow Racing Santander victory as one possible outcome, while a draw is also strongly represented by the 1:1 projection. A 2:0 result is another scenario, suggesting that the hosts could take control if they convert their chances efficiently. Overall, the signal favours Racing Santander avoiding defeat, with the main question being whether Elche CF can turn their attacking involvement into enough goals to take a point or more.
What matters before kick-off
Elche's recent defeat
Elche enter matchday three of LaLiga following a heavy 5-0 home defeat against Barcelona in their previous league fixture.
Racing's home record against Elche
Racing Santander have won their last two home matches against Elche at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.