Real Madrid — Inter Milano: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.6% |
| 12 | 79.4% | |
| X2 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.3% / 11.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.9% / 30.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 away Betis 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Malaga 4:0
- 26.08.2026 home Sociedad 4:1
- 22.08.2026 away Espanol 2:1
- 23.05.2026 home Ath Bilbao 4:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Napoli 3:2
- 30.08.2026 away Cagliari 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Monza 4:1
- 23.05.2026 away Bologna 3:3
- 17.05.2026 home Verona 1:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Real Madrid enter this UEFA Champions League meeting with the clearer overall profile, while the moderate confidence level suggests that the advantage should be treated with some caution. Inter Milano remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly in a match projected to carry an open, high-scoring character. The available assessment points toward a slight but meaningful superiority for Real Madrid rather than an overwhelming mismatch.
Both teams are considered likely to score, which makes the game difficult to frame as a straightforward home win. The main outcome signals point to Real Madrid having the stronger chance of taking control, but Inter Milano should have opportunities to test the home defence. The most consistent scoreline indications are 2:1, 1:1 and 2:0, reflecting a range from a narrow Real Madrid victory to a balanced draw. Overall, the match profile favours Real Madrid, with goals expected at both ends and limited room for complacency.
What matters before kick-off
Champions League opener
Real Madrid begin their 57th participation in the European Cup / UEFA Champions League with a Matchday 1 home fixture against Inter Milan.
Head-to-head history
Inter Milan and Real Madrid have met 19 times in European competitions, with their first encounter taking place in the 1964 European Cup final in Vienna.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.