FC Porto — Manchester City: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 40.1% |
| 12 | 77.8% | |
| X2 | 82.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.7% / 42.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.5% / 17.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.0% / 62.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 home Moreirense 2:1
- 29.08.2026 away Academico Viseu 3:0
- 23.08.2026 home Arouca 2:0
- 15.08.2026 away Rio Ave 2:0
- 09.08.2026 home Alverca 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Coventry 1:0
- 28.08.2026 away Crystal Palace 4:1
- 23.08.2026 home Bournemouth 2:1
- 24.05.2026 home Aston Villa 1:2
- 19.05.2026 away Bournemouth 1:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Porto and Manchester City are expected to produce an open UEFA Champions League contest, with the available assessment pointing towards a high-scoring game. Both teams are likely to find the net, suggesting that the match may be shaped by attacking quality rather than a cautious tactical approach. The “Over” signal also supports the expectation of several meaningful chances across the ninety minutes.
There is a slight edge for Manchester City, although the moderate confidence indicates that the difference between the sides should not be overstated. FC Porto should have opportunities to challenge the visitors, particularly if they can turn attacking moments into sustained pressure. Manchester City are nevertheless rated more favourably overall, making them the stronger side in the preview while leaving room for a competitive and potentially close encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Manchester City squad news
Manchester City enter their Champions League opener without Jeremy Doku and Nico O'Reilly, who are sidelined due to injuries.
Perfect domestic league starts
Both clubs enter the fixture having made a 100% winning start to their domestic campaigns: Porto with five wins in Primeira Liga and Manchester City with three in the Premier League.
Porto's Champions League record
FC Porto are embarking on a Portuguese-record 28th UEFA Champions League campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.