Borussia Dortmund — Villarreal CF: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.5% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.3% / 33.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.0% / 12.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Borussia Dortmund enter this UEFA Champions League meeting with a slight edge over Villarreal CF. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts have the stronger overall position, while the visitors remain capable of making the game difficult. The balance of the forecast supports Borussia Dortmund avoiding defeat, rather than indicating a clear separation between the teams.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal CF likely to find the net. That outlook suggests an encounter shaped by attacking intent and opportunities at both ends rather than a cautious contest. A 1:1 draw is one possible scoreline, while 2:1 and 2:0 also fit the broader assessment. Overall, Borussia Dortmund hold the more favourable outlook, but Villarreal CF have enough attacking potential to keep the result finely balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund availability updates
Borussia Dortmund defender Ramy Bensebaini misses the match due to a suspension carried over from last season's Champions League, while Filippo Mane is sidelined with a thigh injury.
Borussia Dortmund captain's perspective
Borussia Dortmund captain Waldemar Anton highlighted the special atmosphere of Champions League home matches ahead of the fixture, stating the team wants to take a winning first step.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.