Borussia Dortmund — Villarreal CF: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.5% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.3% / 33.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.0% / 12.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Hamburg 2:0
- 16.05.2026 away Werder Bremen 2:0
- 08.05.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 3:2
- 03.05.2026 away M'gladbach 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home La Coruna 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Alaves 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Ath Madrid 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Santander 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Ath Madrid 5:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Borussia Dortmund enter this UEFA Champions League meeting with a slight edge over Villarreal CF. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts have the stronger overall position, while the visitors remain capable of making the game difficult. The balance of the forecast supports Borussia Dortmund avoiding defeat, rather than indicating a clear separation between the teams.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal CF likely to find the net. That outlook suggests an encounter shaped by attacking intent and opportunities at both ends rather than a cautious contest. A 1:1 draw is one possible scoreline, while 2:1 and 2:0 also fit the broader assessment. Overall, Borussia Dortmund hold the more favourable outlook, but Villarreal CF have enough attacking potential to keep the result finely balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund availability updates
Borussia Dortmund defender Ramy Bensebaini misses the match due to a suspension carried over from last season's Champions League, while Filippo Mane is sidelined with a thigh injury.
Borussia Dortmund captain's perspective
Borussia Dortmund captain Waldemar Anton highlighted the special atmosphere of Champions League home matches ahead of the fixture, stating the team wants to take a winning first step.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.