VfB Stuttgart — Viking FK: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.7% |
| 12 | 87.8% | |
| X2 | 21.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.0% / 38.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.6% / 1.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 78.8% / 21.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 60.2% / 39.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
VfB Stuttgart enter this UEFA Champions League meeting with Viking FK as the clearly stronger side according to the available assessment. The confidence in that reading is high, and the main signal points toward a home win. That gives VfB Stuttgart the stronger overall outlook, although the prediction does not remove the possibility of Viking FK making the contest competitive.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination suggests Viking FK may contribute to the game even if VfB Stuttgart remain in control of the broader balance. The most prominent projected score is 3:1, while 3:0 and 2:1 are also identified as plausible outcomes. Overall, the data indicates a strong home advantage, with attacking opportunities likely to shape the game more than a cautious or defensive approach.
What matters before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart head coach backs Deniz Undav
VfB Stuttgart head coach Sebastian Hoeness publicly defended captain Deniz Undav ahead of their Champions League opener against Viking FK, rejecting recent media criticism of the striker's form.
Viking FK debut in Champions League main stage
Norwegian club Viking FK reached the UEFA Champions League league phase for the first time after defeating Dinamo Zagreb 5-3 on aggregate in the play-off round.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.