SSC Napoli — Arsenal FC: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 39.7% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 84.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.9% / 23.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.6% / 70.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.1% / 93.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Inter 2:3
- 30.08.2026 home Como 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Genoa 2:0
- 24.05.2026 home Udinese 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Pisa 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Aston Villa 1:0
- 21.08.2026 home Coventry 3:0
- 24.05.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:1
- 18.05.2026 home Burnley 1:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SSC Napoli face Arsenal FC in the UEFA Champions League, with the available assessment pointing to a clearer advantage for the visitors. The confidence in that view is moderate rather than overwhelming, so the match should be approached as a contest where Arsenal FC have the stronger overall position but SSC Napoli remain capable of making the game competitive.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, suggesting a match that may develop with a balanced level of attacking activity rather than become either an open shootout or a tightly closed encounter. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, leaving room for either a controlled Arsenal FC performance or a response from SSC Napoli. The most representative scorelines are 0:2 and 0:1, while 1:1 is also a plausible alternative if SSC Napoli can turn their opportunities into goals. Overall, the analysis favours Arsenal FC, but the moderate confidence indicates that the margin between the expected outcomes should not be overstated.
What matters before kick-off
Napoli's midfield absences
Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay is ruled out following a heart procedure, while André-Frank Zambo Anguissa misses out with an adductor injury.
Napoli's recent domestic result
Massimiliano Allegri's Napoli entered the fixture following a 3-2 defeat against Inter Milan in Serie A after squandering a two-goal lead.
Arsenal's winning run
Arsenal travelled to Naples holding a 12-match winning streak in UEFA Champions League group or league phase games.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.