SSC Napoli — Arsenal FC: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 39.7% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 84.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.9% / 23.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.6% / 70.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.1% / 93.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SSC Napoli face Arsenal FC in the UEFA Champions League, with the available assessment pointing to a clearer advantage for the visitors. The confidence in that view is moderate rather than overwhelming, so the match should be approached as a contest where Arsenal FC have the stronger overall position but SSC Napoli remain capable of making the game competitive.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, suggesting a match that may develop with a balanced level of attacking activity rather than become either an open shootout or a tightly closed encounter. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, leaving room for either a controlled Arsenal FC performance or a response from SSC Napoli. The most representative scorelines are 0:2 and 0:1, while 1:1 is also a plausible alternative if SSC Napoli can turn their opportunities into goals. Overall, the analysis favours Arsenal FC, but the moderate confidence indicates that the margin between the expected outcomes should not be overstated.
What matters before kick-off
Napoli's midfield absences
Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay is ruled out following a heart procedure, while André-Frank Zambo Anguissa misses out with an adductor injury.
Napoli's recent domestic result
Massimiliano Allegri's Napoli entered the fixture following a 3-2 defeat against Inter Milan in Serie A after squandering a two-goal lead.
Arsenal's winning run
Arsenal travelled to Naples holding a 12-match winning streak in UEFA Champions League group or league phase games.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.