Fenerbahce Istanbul — AS Roma: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.1% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 73.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.9% / 35.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.2% / 36.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.0% / 59.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.0% / 77.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Fenerbahce Istanbul face AS Roma in the UEFA Champions League with the visitors holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The signal points toward AS Roma avoiding defeat, while the home side remain competitive enough to keep the contest close. The high confidence attached to this reading suggests a relatively clear preference for the away side, but not an expectation of a one-sided match.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination supports a match in which Fenerbahce Istanbul can pose a threat at home, while AS Roma have the stronger chance of turning their opportunities into the decisive contribution. The most consistent scoreline indications are a draw or an AS Roma victory, with 1:1, 1:2 and 0:2 the leading possibilities.
What matters before kick-off
Roma squad availability
Midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini is the sole injury absentee for AS Roma ahead of their UEFA Champions League opener against Fenerbahce.
Roma's Champions League return
AS Roma are making their return to the UEFA Champions League main stage after a seven-year absence, opening their campaign away at Fenerbahce.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.