Fenerbahce Istanbul — AS Roma: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.1% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 73.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.9% / 35.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.2% / 36.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.0% / 59.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.0% / 77.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Besiktas 1:2
- 30.08.2026 away Samsunspor 2:0
- 22.08.2026 home Konyaspor 4:2
- 15.08.2026 away Genclerbirligi 1:2
- 17.05.2026 home Eyupspor 3:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Lecce 4:0
- 24.08.2026 home Fiorentina 4:0
- 24.05.2026 away Verona 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Lazio 2:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fenerbahce Istanbul face AS Roma in the UEFA Champions League with the visitors holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The signal points toward AS Roma avoiding defeat, while the home side remain competitive enough to keep the contest close. The high confidence attached to this reading suggests a relatively clear preference for the away side, but not an expectation of a one-sided match.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination supports a match in which Fenerbahce Istanbul can pose a threat at home, while AS Roma have the stronger chance of turning their opportunities into the decisive contribution. The most consistent scoreline indications are a draw or an AS Roma victory, with 1:1, 1:2 and 0:2 the leading possibilities.
What matters before kick-off
Roma squad availability
Midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini is the sole injury absentee for AS Roma ahead of their UEFA Champions League opener against Fenerbahce.
Roma's Champions League return
AS Roma are making their return to the UEFA Champions League main stage after a seven-year absence, opening their campaign away at Fenerbahce.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.