PSV Eindhoven — FC Shakhtar Donetsk: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.6% |
| 12 | 81.1% | |
| X2 | 34.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.0% / 13.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.8% / 72.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
PSV Eindhoven enter this UEFA Champions League meeting with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over FC Shakhtar Donetsk. The assessment points toward the hosts being clearly stronger, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be treated as decisive before kick-off. PSV Eindhoven are therefore the side expected to control the overall balance, while FC Shakhtar Donetsk remain capable of making the contest competitive.
The scoring outlook is positive, with a high-scoring match considered more likely than a cautious encounter. Both teams are likely to score, which gives FC Shakhtar Donetsk a realistic route into the game even with the hosts holding the stronger position. The projected scorelines of 2:1 and 2:0 favour PSV Eindhoven, while 1:1 reflects the possibility that the visitors can limit the home advantage. Overall, the match leans toward a home win, but the expected openness and moderate confidence leave room for a closely contested result.
What matters before kick-off
PSV squad availability and suspension
PSV defender Mauro Junior is suspended for the opening Champions League fixture, while midfielder Jerdy Schouten remains sidelined with an ACL injury.
PSV defeat Ajax 3-1 ahead of European fixture
PSV Eindhoven enter their opening match against Shakhtar Donetsk in strong domestic form after securing a 3-1 away win against rivals Ajax in the Eredivisie.
Milestone 20th Champions League season for both teams
Both PSV Eindhoven and FC Shakhtar Donetsk are gearing up for their 20th overall season competing in the UEFA Champions League main stage.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.