Como 1907 — RB Leipzig: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.8% |
| 12 | 78.3% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Como 1907 hold a slight edge over RB Leipzig in this UEFA Champions League meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a relatively competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment points towards an attacking game, with enough potential in both sides to create chances and influence the scoreline.
The main signal is that both teams are likely to score, making defensive control an important factor without removing the expectation of an open match. Como 1907 may have the stronger overall outlook, but RB Leipzig remain capable of responding and keeping the contest close. The balance between a home advantage and Leipzig’s attacking threat suggests a match where momentum could shift during the game, with a narrow home result or a draw both consistent with the available indicators.
What matters before kick-off
Como's Champions League debut
Head coach Cesc Fàbregas leads Como into their first-ever UEFA Champions League match against RB Leipzig.
Como team news
Como midfielder Jayden Addai misses the match due to an Achilles injury.
Recent team results
Como enter the match following a 4-1 win over Genoa in Serie A, while RB Leipzig suffered a 3-1 Bundesliga defeat against Werder Bremen.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.