Liverpool FC — Atletico Madrid: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.5% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 away Ipswich 2:0
- 29.08.2026 home Nott'm Forest 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 15.05.2026 away Aston Villa 2:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Sevilla 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home Villarreal 2:2
- 19.08.2026 home Malaga 2:0
- 24.05.2026 away Villarreal 1:5
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Liverpool FC have a slight edge over Atletico Madrid in this UEFA Champions League meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with meaningful uncertainty. The assessment leans toward a high-scoring game rather than a tightly controlled encounter, suggesting that both sides have a credible route to finding the net.
The main signal is that both teams are likely to score, which makes the match difficult to frame as a one-sided affair. Liverpool FC are given the stronger overall position, but Atletico Madrid remain well placed to challenge them and keep the result balanced for long periods. The range of likely scorelines includes a draw as well as narrow home victories, reinforcing the view that the hosts have an advantage without being expected to dominate. This should be an open, competitive fixture in which attacking moments may carry more weight than defensive control.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Results
Liverpool enter the match following a 2-0 victory against Ipswich Town, which marked manager Andoni Iraola's first win in charge. Atletico Madrid suffered a 3-0 defeat away to Athletic Bilbao in La Liga over the weekend.
Squad Availability
Atletico Madrid will be without injured striker Alexander Sorloth, while Arnau Ortiz is suspended. For Liverpool, Cody Gakpo missed a pre-match training session as a precaution against injury risk.
Managerial Context
Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola makes his UEFA Champions League managerial debut. Meanwhile, Diego Simeone is leading Atletico Madrid into his 14th consecutive Champions League campaign with the club.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.