Liverpool FC — Atletico Madrid: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.5% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Liverpool FC have a slight edge over Atletico Madrid in this UEFA Champions League meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with meaningful uncertainty. The assessment leans toward a high-scoring game rather than a tightly controlled encounter, suggesting that both sides have a credible route to finding the net.
The main signal is that both teams are likely to score, which makes the match difficult to frame as a one-sided affair. Liverpool FC are given the stronger overall position, but Atletico Madrid remain well placed to challenge them and keep the result balanced for long periods. The range of likely scorelines includes a draw as well as narrow home victories, reinforcing the view that the hosts have an advantage without being expected to dominate. This should be an open, competitive fixture in which attacking moments may carry more weight than defensive control.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Results
Liverpool enter the match following a 2-0 victory against Ipswich Town, which marked manager Andoni Iraola's first win in charge. Atletico Madrid suffered a 3-0 defeat away to Athletic Bilbao in La Liga over the weekend.
Squad Availability
Atletico Madrid will be without injured striker Alexander Sorloth, while Arnau Ortiz is suspended. For Liverpool, Cody Gakpo missed a pre-match training session as a precaution against injury risk.
Managerial Context
Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola makes his UEFA Champions League managerial debut. Meanwhile, Diego Simeone is leading Atletico Madrid into his 14th consecutive Champions League campaign with the club.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.