Lille OSC — Real Betis Seville: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.2% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 55.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.3% / 38.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.7% / 18.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.6% / 64.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.7% / 81.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Lille OSC have a slight edge over Real Betis Seville in this UEFA Champions League meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with limited separation between the teams. The hosts may benefit from playing at home, but Real Betis Seville have enough attacking quality in this assessment to remain a persistent threat. The balance points toward Lille OSC being better placed to avoid defeat rather than toward a decisive advantage.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination could produce an open but measured game, where the first goal would carry significant tactical importance. Lille OSC may look to control the tempo and make their home advantage count, while Real Betis Seville could find opportunities if they can move the ball effectively through the attacking areas. The most plausible scorelines indicate a close encounter, with a draw and a narrow home win both consistent with the overall outlook.
What matters before kick-off
Real Betis victory over Real Madrid
Ahead of their Champions League opener, Real Betis secured a 1-0 La Liga victory against Real Madrid courtesy of an 81st-minute goal from Troy Parrott.
Lille victory over Toulouse
Lille, managed by Davide Ancelotti, secured a 1-0 Ligue 1 victory against Toulouse courtesy of a 73rd-minute goal by new signing Ayase Ueda.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.