Real Betis Seville — FC Porto: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
48.0%
Home win
Real Betis Seville
X
24.7%
Draw
W2
27.4%
Away win
FC Porto
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.3%
Both teams to score
Yes60.4%
Totals 2.5
Over58.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.6% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.3% / 18.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.5% / 41.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.1% / 63.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.1% / 80.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
Goal distribution model
Real Betis Seville × FC Porto
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.4%
0:1
5.5%
0:2
3.9%
0:3
1.7%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
7.8%
1:1
11.4%
1:2
6.9%
1:3
3.0%
1:4
0.9%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.4%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.3%
3:1
5.6%
3:2
3.6%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.9%
4:1
2.4%
4:2
1.6%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.7%
5:1
0.9%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.4%
2:19.5%
1:07.8%
2:07.4%
1:26.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away La Coruna 1:1
- 17.09.2026 home Getafe 1:0
- 14.09.2026 away Villarreal 2:1
- 04.09.2026 home Real Madrid 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Levante 2:5
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Benfica 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Casa Pia 4:1
- 04.09.2026 home Moreirense 2:1
- 29.08.2026 away Academico Viseu 3:0
- 23.08.2026 home Arouca 2:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 3.30 → now 3.40 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.