FC Shakhtar Donetsk — AEK Athens: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
36.4%
Home win
FC Shakhtar Donetsk
X
26.9%
Draw
W2
36.7%
Away win
AEK Athens
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.1%
Both teams to score
Yes58.4%
Totals 2.5
Over54.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.3% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 63.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.4% / 41.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.4% / 21.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.8% / 93.2% |
Goal distribution model
FC Shakhtar Donetsk × AEK Athens
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.8%
0:1
7.4%
0:2
5.9%
0:3
2.8%
0:4
1.0%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
7.4%
1:1
12.7%
1:2
8.4%
1:3
4.0%
1:4
1.4%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
5.9%
2:1
8.3%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
2.8%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
2.8%
3:1
3.9%
3:2
2.8%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.0%
4:1
1.4%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.7%
1:28.4%
2:18.3%
0:17.4%
1:07.4%
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