AS Roma — Real Madrid: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
24.7%
Home win
AS Roma
X
23.1%
Draw
W2
52.2%
Away win
Real Madrid
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.9%
Both teams to score
Yes68.9%
Totals 2.5
Over69.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 47.8% |
| 12 | 76.9% | |
| X2 | 75.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.6% / 11.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
Goal distribution model
AS Roma × Real Madrid
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.9%
0:1
4.7%
0:2
6.3%
0:3
4.5%
0:4
2.4%
0:5
1.0%
1
1:0
2.8%
1:1
9.7%
1:2
9.1%
1:3
6.5%
1:4
3.5%
1:5
1.5%
2
2:0
2.9%
2:1
6.2%
2:2
6.7%
2:3
4.8%
2:4
2.6%
2:5
1.1%
3
3:0
1.4%
3:1
3.0%
3:2
3.2%
3:3
2.3%
3:4
1.2%
3:5
0.5%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
1.1%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.7%
1:29.1%
2:26.7%
1:36.5%
0:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Inter 2:2
- 14.09.2026 away Torino 2:0
- 05.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Lecce 4:0
- 24.08.2026 home Fiorentina 4:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Ath Madrid 1:2
- 15.09.2026 away Elche 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Vallecano 4:1
- 04.09.2026 away Betis 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Malaga 4:0
Head-to-head · Last 5 meetings
AS Roma wins0
Draws0
Real Madrid wins5
Goals per match2.40
Both teams scored1/5
Over 2.5 goals2/5
- 27.11.2018 AS Roma 0:2 Real Madrid
- 19.09.2018 Real Madrid 3:0 AS Roma
- 08.08.2018 Real Madrid 2:1 AS Roma
- 08.03.2016 Real Madrid 2:0 AS Roma
- 17.02.2016 AS Roma 0:2 Real Madrid
Sources: football-data.co.uk, API-Football. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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