Manchester City — Paris Saint-Germain: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
44.7%
Home win
Manchester City
X
23.9%
Draw
W2
31.5%
Away win
Paris Saint-Germain
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.1%
Both teams to score
Yes69.1%
Totals 2.5
Over68.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.9% / 72.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
Goal distribution model
Manchester City × Paris Saint-Germain
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.9%
0:1
3.7%
0:2
3.8%
0:3
2.0%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
4.7%
1:1
10.1%
1:2
7.3%
1:3
3.9%
1:4
1.5%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.5%
2:1
8.7%
2:2
7.0%
2:3
3.7%
2:4
1.5%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
3.5%
3:1
5.6%
3:2
4.5%
3:3
2.4%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
1.7%
4:1
2.7%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
1.0%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:110.1%
2:18.7%
1:27.3%
2:27.0%
3:15.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Sunderland 5:3
- 13.09.2026 away Man United 1:0
- 05.09.2026 home Coventry 1:0
- 28.08.2026 away Crystal Palace 4:1
- 23.08.2026 home Bournemouth 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Marseille 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Brest 1:0
- 04.09.2026 home Monaco 1:2
- 28.08.2026 away Lille 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Rennes 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Manchester City wins4
Draws0
Paris Saint-Germain wins2
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 22.01.2025 Paris Saint Germain 4:2 Manchester City
- 24.11.2021 Manchester City 2:1 Paris Saint Germain
- 28.09.2021 Paris Saint Germain 2:0 Manchester City
- 04.05.2021 Manchester City 2:0 Paris Saint Germain
- 28.04.2021 Paris Saint Germain 1:2 Manchester City
- 12.04.2016 Manchester City 1:0 Paris Saint Germain
Sources: football-data.co.uk, API-Football. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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