Aston Villa — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
60.3%
Home win
Aston Villa
X
23.2%
Draw
W2
16.5%
Away win
Fenerbahce Istanbul
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X83.5%
Both teams to score
Yes58.4%
Totals 2.5
Over61.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.5% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 39.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.4% / 41.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.7% / 61.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.1% / 78.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.0% / 90.0% |
Goal distribution model
Aston Villa × Fenerbahce Istanbul
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.7%
0:1
3.1%
0:2
2.3%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.6%
1:1
10.8%
1:2
4.9%
1:3
1.7%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.5%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
5.2%
2:3
1.8%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.7%
3:1
7.0%
3:2
3.6%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.5%
4:1
3.7%
4:2
1.9%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.5%
5:1
1.5%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.8%
2:19.9%
2:09.5%
1:07.6%
3:17.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Tottenham 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Hull 0:0
- 31.08.2026 home Arsenal 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Brighton 0:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Eyupspor 8:0
- 14.09.2026 away Gaziantep 0:0
- 05.09.2026 home Besiktas 1:2
- 30.08.2026 away Samsunspor 2:0
- 22.08.2026 home Konyaspor 4:2
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
Aston Villa wins1
Draws0
Fenerbahce Istanbul wins0
Goals per match1.00
Both teams scored0/1
Over 2.5 goals0/1
- 22.01.2026 Fenerbahçe 0:1 Aston Villa
Sources: football-data.co.uk, API-Football. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.