Rayo Vallecano — Espanyol Barcelona: Win probabilities, 15.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.6% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 59.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.09.2026
Rayo Vallecano
16th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Real Madrid 1:4
- 05.09.2026 home Santander 3:2
- 31.08.2026 away Barcelona 2:5
- 20.08.2026 home Alaves 1:1
- 15.08.2026 away Sevilla 1:2
Espanyol Barcelona
9th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Osasuna 2:0
- 06.09.2026 home Sevilla 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Sociedad 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Real Madrid 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home Levante 3:0
This season: Rayo Vallecano at home vs Espanyol Barcelona away
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano · at home | Espanyol Barcelona · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| xG against per match | 1.24 | 1.36 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.04.2026 Rayo Vallecano 1:0 Espanyol Barcelona
- 07.12.2025 Espanyol Barcelona 1:0 Rayo Vallecano
- 04.04.2025 Rayo Vallecano 0:4 Espanyol Barcelona
- 31.08.2024 Espanyol Barcelona 2:1 Rayo Vallecano
- 21.05.2023 Rayo Vallecano 1:2 Espanyol Barcelona
- 19.08.2022 Espanyol Barcelona 0:2 Rayo Vallecano
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Rayo Vallecano have a moderate home advantage over Espanyol Barcelona in this LaLiga meeting. The assessment points to a relatively balanced contest, but with a slight edge for the hosts. The expected profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a match that may produce several meaningful attacking phases without necessarily becoming open from the start.
Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, so the game could develop around small tactical details and the efficiency of each side in the final third. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0, which reflects the narrow gap between the teams and the possibility of a closely managed encounter. Rayo Vallecano may be better placed to avoid defeat, although Espanyol Barcelona have a realistic chance of taking something from the match if they handle the hosts' pressure effectively.
What matters before kick-off
LaLiga Matchday 6 Fixture
The 2026-27 LaLiga Matchday 6 encounter between Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol is scheduled for September 15, 2026.
Sergio Camello in Form for Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano forward Sergio Camello has already scored 6 goals in the first 5 league matches, making him the main attacking threat for the home side.
Recent Away Victory for Espanyol
Prior to visiting Rayo Vallecano, Espanyol secured a 2-0 away win against Osasuna in their previous LaLiga fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.