Deportivo Alaves — Valencia CF: Win probabilities, 15.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.3% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.5% / 25.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.0% / 52.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.3% / 73.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.09.2026
Deportivo Alaves
4th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Santander 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Osasuna 5:2
- 28.08.2026 home Villarreal 1:0
- 20.08.2026 away Vallecano 1:1
- 15.08.2026 home Getafe 3:0
Valencia CF
20th place · 1 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 away Sevilla 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Barcelona 0:5
- 30.08.2026 away La Coruna 1:3
- 25.08.2026 home Betis 0:1
- 22.08.2026 home Celta 0:0
This season: Deportivo Alaves at home vs Valencia CF away
| Metric | Deportivo Alaves · at home | Valencia CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.31 | 0.72 |
| xG against per match | 1.09 | 1.18 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.67 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.67 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.03.2026 Valencia CF 3:2 Deportivo Alaves
- 20.10.2025 Deportivo Alaves 0:0 Valencia CF
- 14.05.2025 Deportivo Alaves 1:0 Valencia CF
- 22.12.2024 Valencia CF 2:2 Deportivo Alaves
- 05.05.2024 Valencia CF 0:1 Deportivo Alaves
- 02.09.2023 Deportivo Alaves 1:0 Valencia CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Deportivo Alaves enter this LaLiga meeting with a slight but well-supported edge over Valencia CF. The available assessment points towards the home side avoiding defeat, making the 1X outcome the most relevant angle. This does not suggest a one-sided contest, however, and Valencia CF remain capable of keeping the match balanced.
The scoring outlook is moderate rather than extreme, with a medium-scoring game expected. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so there is no clear basis for expecting either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0, which underline the narrow margin between a draw and a controlled home victory. Overall, Deportivo Alaves have the stronger position, but Valencia CF should keep the result competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Valencia under interim management after Corberan departure
Valencia parted ways with head coach Carlos Corberan following a poor start to the LaLiga campaign, placing youth team coach Oscar Sanchez in interim charge for the match against Deportivo Alaves.
Deportivo Alaves look to recover after first league defeat
Deportivo Alaves enter the fixture following their first defeat of the LaLiga season, a 2-1 loss against Racing Santander, having accumulated 10 points from their preceding four matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.