Levante UD — Athletic Bilbao: Win probabilities, 16.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.3% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 71.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.0% / 18.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.09.2026
Levante UD
14th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Barcelona 2:4
- 06.09.2026 away Malaga 0:0
- 29.08.2026 home Betis 5:2
- 24.08.2026 away Osasuna 0:0
- 16.08.2026 away Espanol 0:3
Athletic Bilbao
10th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Elche 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 3:0
- 30.08.2026 away Celta 2:0
- 27.08.2026 away Barcelona 0:2
- 22.08.2026 home Sevilla 1:3
This season: Levante UD at home vs Athletic Bilbao away
| Metric | Levante UD · at home | Athletic Bilbao · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.59 | 1.45 |
| xG against per match | 2.26 | 2.24 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.50 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.02.2026 Athletic Bilbao 4:2 Levante UD
- 29.11.2025 Levante UD 0:2 Athletic Bilbao
- 07.03.2022 Athletic Bilbao 3:1 Levante UD
- 19.11.2021 Levante UD 0:0 Athletic Bilbao
- 26.02.2021 Levante UD 1:1 Athletic Bilbao
- 18.10.2020 Athletic Bilbao 2:0 Levante UD
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Levante UD face Athletic Bilbao in a LaLiga contest where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the moderate confidence level suggests a fairly competitive match rather than a one-sided affair. The available assessment points toward a medium-scoring game, with Athletic Bilbao marginally better placed to avoid defeat. The X2 signal supports either an away win or a draw, keeping the result open while giving the visitors the stronger overall position.
Both teams are likely to score, which adds weight to a balanced and active contest. The leading scoreline is 1:1, followed by 1:2 and 0:1, reflecting a narrow range of plausible outcomes rather than a clear separation between the sides. Levante UD should remain involved in the game, while Athletic Bilbao appear to have the greater chance of turning a close match in their favour.
What matters before kick-off
Levante's previous match
Prior to hosting Athletic Bilbao, Levante UD suffered a 2-4 home defeat against FC Barcelona at the Ciutat de València.
Athletic Bilbao's form
Athletic Bilbao enter the match following a 1-1 draw against Elche CF, extending their unbeaten run in LaLiga to three games.
Head-to-head history in Valencia
Levante UD and Athletic Bilbao have met 17 times in the top flight at Levante's home ground, with Athletic Club winning 7 times, Levante 5 times, and 5 matches ending in a draw.
Athletic Bilbao squad list
Athletic Bilbao confirmed their official squad list for the away fixture against Levante UD on 16 September 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.