Malaga CF — Villarreal CF: Win probabilities, 17.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.6% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 74.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.2% / 15.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.2% / 77.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.09.2026
Malaga CF
18th place · 3 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Celta 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Levante 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Real Madrid 0:4
- 24.08.2026 home La Coruna 1:1
- 19.08.2026 away Ath Madrid 0:2
Villarreal CF
19th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.09.2026 home Betis 1:2
- 05.09.2026 home La Coruna 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Alaves 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Ath Madrid 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Santander 2:2
This season: Malaga CF at home vs Villarreal CF away
| Metric | Malaga CF · at home | Villarreal CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 0–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.78 | 1.89 |
| xG against per match | 1.05 | 1.15 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 6.33 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 7.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Malaga CF face Villarreal CF in LaLiga on 17 September 2026, with the available indicators pointing to a competitive match that could produce several attacking moments. The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are considered likely to find the net, suggesting that neither side is expected to rely solely on defensive control.
Villarreal CF hold a slight edge in the overall outcome assessment, with the away-side protection signal indicating that they are the more likely team to avoid defeat. However, the margin between the teams is not presented as decisive, and a draw remains a credible possibility in a match where both attacks may have an impact. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 1-2 and 0-2, reflecting a balance between an open contest and a narrow advantage for Villarreal CF.
What matters before kick-off
Juan Foyth out for Villarreal against Málaga
Villarreal defender Juan Foyth continues to recover from a muscle injury and remains unavailable for the LaLiga Matchday 6 fixture against Málaga CF.
Both teams search for first league win
Both Málaga CF and Villarreal CF enter matchday six still seeking their first victory of the current LaLiga season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.