Atletico Madrid — CA Osasuna: Win probabilities, 16.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.8% |
| 12 | 80.5% | |
| X2 | 28.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.8% / 54.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.0% / 20.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.7% / 66.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.3% / 82.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.09.2026
Atletico Madrid
5th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Sociedad 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Sevilla 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home Villarreal 2:2
- 19.08.2026 home Malaga 2:0
CA Osasuna
8th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Espanol 0:2
- 06.09.2026 away Alaves 2:5
- 31.08.2026 home Getafe 1:0
- 27.08.2026 away Celta 2:1
- 24.08.2026 home Levante 0:0
This season: Atletico Madrid at home vs CA Osasuna away
| Metric | Atletico Madrid · at home | CA Osasuna · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.86 | 2.16 |
| xG against per match | 1.88 | 0.66 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.05.2026 CA Osasuna 1:2 Atletico Madrid
- 18.10.2025 Atletico Madrid 1:0 CA Osasuna
- 15.05.2025 CA Osasuna 2:0 Atletico Madrid
- 12.01.2025 Atletico Madrid 1:0 CA Osasuna
- 19.05.2024 Atletico Madrid 1:4 CA Osasuna
- 28.09.2023 CA Osasuna 0:2 Atletico Madrid
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atletico Madrid go into this LaLiga fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the confidence level is moderate rather than absolute. The available assessment points toward a home win, with the hosts favoured to control the match and create the more convincing attacking phases. The expected profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a game that may be decided without turning into an open contest.
CA Osasuna still have a realistic chance to make the match competitive, particularly if they can limit Atletico Madrid’s territorial control and remain disciplined defensively. The outlook for both teams to score is finely balanced, so there is no clear indication that CA Osasuna will find the net. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0, all of which reflect an advantage for Atletico Madrid while keeping the overall scoring level moderate.
What matters before kick-off
Atlético Madrid's recent LaLiga victory
On September 13, 2026, Atlético Madrid secured a 3-0 away win against Real Sociedad courtesy of late second-half goals from Alejandro Grimaldo, Jonathan David, and Giuliano Simeone.
Osasuna's recent LaLiga fixture
On September 12, 2026, CA Osasuna suffered a 0-2 home defeat against RCD Espanyol in matchday 5 of the LaLiga season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.