Elche CF — Real Madrid: Win probabilities, 15.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 19.5% |
| 12 | 87.9% | |
| X2 | 92.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.0% / 2.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.2% / 23.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.1% / 62.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.09.2026
Elche CF
19th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 1:1
- 07.09.2026 home Sociedad 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Santander 2:3
- 23.08.2026 home Barcelona 0:5
- 17.08.2026 away La Coruna 1:1
Real Madrid
2nd place · 12 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Vallecano 4:1
- 04.09.2026 away Betis 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Malaga 4:0
- 26.08.2026 home Sociedad 4:1
- 22.08.2026 away Espanol 2:1
This season: Elche CF at home vs Real Madrid away
| Metric | Elche CF · at home | Real Madrid · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.59 | 3.08 |
| xG against per match | 2.48 | 0.99 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 9.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.03.2026 Real Madrid 4:1 Elche CF
- 23.11.2025 Elche CF 2:2 Real Madrid
- 15.02.2023 Real Madrid 4:0 Elche CF
- 19.10.2022 Elche CF 0:3 Real Madrid
- 23.01.2022 Real Madrid 2:2 Elche CF
- 30.10.2021 Elche CF 1:2 Real Madrid
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Elche CF face Real Madrid in LaLiga on 15 September 2026, with the match scheduled for 19:30 UTC. The pre-match assessment gives Real Madrid a clear advantage, and the high confidence in that view suggests the visitors should control much of the contest. Elche CF will need to remain disciplined and efficient in the moments when opportunities arise, particularly against an opponent expected to carry the greater attacking threat.
The scoring outlook points towards an open, high-scoring match rather than a tightly managed encounter. Real Madrid are the stronger side in the overall evaluation, while the question of whether both teams will score is less clear and remains evenly balanced. The most plausible scorelines in the assessment are 0:3, 0:2 and 1:3, all of which reflect a match where Real Madrid's superiority could be decisive. Elche CF still have a route into the game if they can limit the visitors' space and make their own attacking phases count.
What matters before kick-off
Real Madrid's recent victory
Real Madrid enter the matchday 6 LaLiga fixture following a 4-1 home victory over Rayo Vallecano on September 12, 2026, in which Kylian Mbappé scored twice.
Elche's recent draw
Elche CF picked up a point in their previous LaLiga match by holding Athletic Club to a 1-1 draw away from home, courtesy of a penalty from Facundo Buonanotte.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.