Rayo Vallecano — Elche CF: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026

Rayo Vallecano have a slight edge over Elche CF ahead of this LaLiga meeting, although the overall balance remains relatively close. The hosts have drawn three of their last five matches, winning once and losing once, and currently sit 12th with 10 points from nine games. Their home record offers a stronger foundation: Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in four home matches this season, with two wins and two draws, scoring six goals and conceding four. However, their chances created and allowed have been roughly level, suggesting that home advantage alone may not be enough to establish clear control.

Elche CF arrive in 18th place with seven points from nine matches, but their recent results are similar to those of Rayo Vallecano, with one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five outings. Away from home, Elche CF have collected one win and three draws in five matches, scoring seven goals. Their main concern is defensive balance, as they have allowed clearly more chances than they create on the road. The head-to-head record is evenly split, with three wins each across six meetings, although Rayo Vallecano won the most recent encounter 1-0 in 2026. A moderately scoring contest looks plausible, with Rayo Vallecano holding a narrow advantage but a draw remaining a credible outcome.