Deportivo Alaves — Malaga CF: Win probabilities, 23.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.2% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.4% / 25.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.10.2026
Deportivo Alaves
9th place · 11 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Celta 1:2
- 10.10.2026 home Ath Madrid 1:2
- 19.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 0:0
- 15.09.2026 home Valencia 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Santander 1:2
Malaga CF
20th place · 4 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Sociedad 2:5
- 09.10.2026 home Espanol 1:1
- 20.09.2026 away Getafe 0:1
- 17.09.2026 home Villarreal 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Celta 1:1
This season: Deportivo Alaves at home vs Malaga CF away
| Metric | Deportivo Alaves · at home | Malaga CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–2 | 0–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.26 | 0.45 |
| xG against per match | 1.19 | 1.55 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.20 | 5.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 20.05.2023 Deportivo Alaves 2:1 Malaga CF
- 18.12.2022 Malaga CF 1:0 Deportivo Alaves
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.65 → now 1.57 |
| X | was 3.60 → now 3.80 |
| W2 | was 5.75 → now 6.50 |
Match preview
Deportivo Alaves have a slight edge over Malaga CF ahead of this LaLiga meeting, although their recent form makes the hosts difficult to back with strong conviction. Deportivo Alaves have lost four of their last five matches, drawing the other, and have scored only three goals while conceding seven during that run. However, their home performances offer a more encouraging picture: three wins from five matches, with ten goals scored and five conceded. That home record gives them a reasonable platform against opponents who have struggled to produce consistent results.
Malaga CF arrive in a more difficult league position, sitting 20th with four points from nine matches. Their recent record includes three defeats and two draws, while they have conceded eleven goals across their last five games. Away from home, the problems are particularly evident: Malaga CF have scored just once in four matches, losing three and drawing one. They have also allowed considerably more chances than they create on their travels, which could give Deportivo Alaves opportunities to take control.
The overall balance favours Deportivo Alaves, primarily because of their stronger home record and Malaga CF's limited away output. Nevertheless, the hosts' recent losing run lowers confidence in that advantage. A competitive, moderately scoring match looks plausible, with a narrow home win or a draw both credible outcomes.
What matters before kick-off
Deportivo Alavés recent result
In their previous LaLiga fixture ahead of this match, Deportivo Alavés suffered a narrow 2-1 defeat against Celta Vigo.
Málaga CF recent result
Málaga CF head into this fixture following a 5-2 defeat against Real Sociedad in their previous league match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.