Racing Club Avellaneda — Atletico Tucuman: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.6% |
| 12 | 68.5% | |
| X2 | 53.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.0% / 97.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Racing Club Avellaneda have a slight but credible edge over Atletico Tucuman in this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture. The overall assessment points toward the hosts avoiding defeat, with the home side holding the stronger position while the match remains competitive rather than one-sided. The high confidence applies to that general direction, not to a specific final score.
The scoring outlook is moderate, suggesting a match that may develop without becoming especially open. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the game could follow several balanced paths. A 1-1 draw is among the plausible outcomes, while narrow home success such as 1-0 is also consistent with the assessment. A goalless draw remains possible if neither side turns its opportunities into goals. Atletico Tucuman should therefore remain within contention, but Racing Club Avellaneda enter as the team with the clearer analytical advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Torneo Clausura round 8 fixture
Racing Club host Atlético Tucumán at Estadio Presidente Perón in round 8 of the Torneo Clausura. The home side entered the match sitting at the bottom of Group B following a 3-1 defeat to Independiente Rivadavia.
Atlético Tucumán recent form
Atlético Tucumán enter the match following back-to-back goalless draws in the league against Belgrano and Instituto. The team has also progressed to the Copa Argentina quarter-finals, where they are set to face Independiente Rivadavia.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.