CA Lanus — Defensa y Justicia: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.5% |
| 12 | 70.5% | |
| X2 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.0% / 56.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.9% / 77.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Boca Juniors 0:1
- 25.08.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 1:1
- 17.08.2026 home Independiente 1:3
- 12.08.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 3:0
- 06.08.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 home Platense 1:0
- 23.08.2026 away Belgrano 2:1
- 17.08.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 1:1
- 09.08.2026 home Newells Old Boys 2:1
- 01.08.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:3
This season: CA Lanus at home vs Defensa y Justicia away
| Metric | CA Lanus · at home | Defensa y Justicia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 4–5–3 | 4–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.83 | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 55% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.03.2026 Defensa y Justicia 1:1 CA Lanus
- 25.11.2024 CA Lanus 0:0 Defensa y Justicia
- 03.03.2024 Defensa y Justicia 0:4 CA Lanus
- 07.10.2023 CA Lanus 0:2 Defensa y Justicia
- 10.07.2023 Defensa y Justicia 2:2 CA Lanus
- 10.06.2022 CA Lanus 1:1 Defensa y Justicia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Lanus enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a slight home advantage over Defensa y Justicia. The assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence edge, although the gap between the teams is not presented as decisive. Home support and the overall balance of the matchup point toward CA Lanus being better placed, while Defensa y Justicia remain capable of keeping the contest close.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a match with a reasonable attacking presence but without an indication of an open goal fest. Whether both teams score is viewed as finely balanced, so the game could develop around cautious phases as well as moments of pressure at either end. The strongest overall signal favors CA Lanus avoiding defeat, with a draw also a realistic part of the outlook. For Defensa y Justicia, maintaining defensive structure and limiting the hosts' territorial advantage will be important, while CA Lanus will look to turn their narrow edge into sustained control.
What matters before kick-off
Lanús Recent League Result
In their previous Primera División Clausura fixture, CA Lanús suffered a 1-0 away defeat against Boca Juniors.
Defensa y Justicia Recent Form
Defensa y Justicia head into round 8 following back-to-back league victories, including a 1-0 home win over Platense in their previous match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.