CA San Lorenzo de Almagro — CA Talleres de Cordoba: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.3% |
| 12 | 68.4% | |
| X2 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.8% / 80.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro hold a slight but credible edge over CA Talleres de Cordoba in this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture. The outlook points toward the hosts avoiding defeat, although the gap between the teams does not suggest a one-sided contest. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro are the more reliable side in the underlying assessment, while CA Talleres de Cordoba remain capable of keeping the match balanced.
The scoring outlook is moderate, with neither an open attacking game nor a completely closed encounter standing out as the most likely pattern. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so the match could develop through cautious periods and limited margins. The leading scorelines indicate a draw or a narrow home victory, with 1:1, 0:0 and 1:0 all consistent with a controlled, competitive game.
What matters before kick-off
Managerial changes ahead of the match
Both sides head into matchday 8 of the Clausura following managerial changes. Néstor Gorosito left San Lorenzo after their defeat to Instituto, while Jorge Sampaoli departed Talleres, leading both clubs into this fixture under new leadership.
San Lorenzo's head-to-head record
San Lorenzo hold a strong historical advantage over Talleres de Córdoba, having won 22 of their 43 meetings alongside 14 draws and just 7 defeats.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.