Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata — CA Tigre: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.6% |
| 12 | 66.7% | |
| X2 | 61.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 86.5% / 13.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 65.8% / 34.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.5% / 82.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.3% / 97.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Rosario Central 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 2:3
- 15.08.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:4
- 09.08.2026 home Barracas Central 2:0
- 02.08.2026 away Aldosivi 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.09.2026 home Barracas Central 0:0
- 24.08.2026 home Central Cordoba 2:1
- 15.08.2026 away Aldosivi 0:0
- 08.08.2026 home River Plate 1:0
- 06.08.2026 home Belgrano 0:0
This season: Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata at home vs CA Tigre away
| Metric | Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata · at home | CA Tigre · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 6–1–4 | 2–5–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.45 | 0.91 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.03.2026 CA Tigre 2:2 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 15.09.2024 CA Tigre 1:1 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 29.04.2023 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 1:1 CA Tigre
- 25.09.2022 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 0:1 CA Tigre
- 01.02.2019 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 3:1 CA Tigre
- 06.04.2018 CA Tigre 2:0 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata and CA Tigre appear evenly matched ahead of their Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The available indicators point to a cautious contest in which neither side holds a clear overall advantage. With moderate confidence, the most credible outlook is for a close game shaped by small details rather than sustained dominance from either team.
Scoring is expected to be limited, making a compact tactical approach and defensive concentration especially important. The possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced, so the match could develop around a single decisive moment or remain level throughout. The overall signal gives Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata a slight edge in the safer home-or-draw outcome, but this should not be read as a promise of victory. A draw fits the broader assessment, while a narrow result for either side also remains plausible.
What matters before kick-off
Torneo Clausura Matchday 8 fixture
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata host CA Tigre at the Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo on matchday 8 of Zone B in the 2026 Torneo Clausura.
Level on points in the group
Both teams enter matchday 8 level on 12 points in Zone B.
Recent league results
Gimnasia La Plata come off a 2-1 victory over Rosario Central, whereas CA Tigre drew 0-0 against Barracas Central in their previous match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.