Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza — Boca Juniors: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.9% |
| 12 | 70.0% | |
| X2 | 78.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.6% / 11.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.0% / 97.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Independiente 3:0
- 22.08.2026 away Gimnasia L.P. 3:2
- 18.08.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 3:1
- 09.08.2026 away Instituto 0:1
- 01.08.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Lanus 1:0
- 24.08.2026 away Racing Club 1:1
- 16.08.2026 away Platense 1:1
- 08.08.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 1:1
- 05.08.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 1:0
This season: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza at home vs Boca Juniors away
| Metric | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza · at home | Boca Juniors · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–3 | 5–4–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.36 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.82 | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 58% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 58% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
- 28.02.2026 Boca Juniors 1:1 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza face Boca Juniors in the Primera LPF, Clausura, with kickoff scheduled for 6 September 2026 at 20:00 UTC. The assessment gives Boca Juniors a slight edge, while the overall scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring match. That suggests a contest where the visitors may have the stronger position, but not one expected to be decided by a wide margin.
The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:1 and 0:0, reflecting a relatively balanced game with limited separation between the teams. Whether both teams score is difficult to call, so the match could develop either through a narrow Boca Juniors victory or a closely fought draw. The main signal supports Boca Juniors avoiding defeat, while Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza remain capable of keeping the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Stadium expansion before the match
Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza expanded the capacity of its Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie by adding two temporary tubular stands to accommodate around 1,000 additional fans for the match against Boca Juniors.
Boca Juniors injury absences
Boca Juniors head into the match dealing with player absences, with Leandro Paredes, Milton Delgado, and Tomás Aranda all sidelined due to injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.