CA Rosario Central — Newell's Old Boys: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.2% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.9% / 59.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.9% / 30.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA Rosario Central enter this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a clear but not overwhelming edge over Newell's Old Boys. The assessment points toward the hosts being stronger overall, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the advantage should be treated with some caution rather than as a decisive separation. The expected scoring profile is medium, indicating a match that may develop with measured attacking intent rather than become an open contest from the start.
The main signal favours CA Rosario Central, while the most plausible match patterns also include a narrow home victory or a draw. A clean sheet is considered likely, which gives the hosts’ defensive outlook particular importance in the analysis. Newell's Old Boys remain capable of keeping the game close, especially if they limit space and maintain a compact structure, but the available indications place them behind CA Rosario Central. Overall, the preview points to a controlled contest in which the home side has the stronger platform, with the margin potentially remaining narrow.
What matters before kick-off
Rosario Derby in Primera LPF Clausura
The 2026 Argentine Primera LPF Clausura match between Rosario Central and Newell's Old Boys is scheduled for September 6, 2026, at the Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.