CA Rosario Central — Newell's Old Boys: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.2% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.9% / 59.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.9% / 30.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 1:2
- 25.08.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 2:2
- 17.08.2026 away Barracas Central 1:0
- 07.08.2026 home Aldosivi 2:1
- 02.08.2026 away River Plate 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:0
- 23.08.2026 home Banfield 2:1
- 15.08.2026 home Dep. Riestra 2:0
- 09.08.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 1:2
- 02.08.2026 home Boca Juniors 2:2
This season: CA Rosario Central at home vs Newell's Old Boys away
| Metric | CA Rosario Central · at home | Newell's Old Boys · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 6–4–3 | 2–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.31 | 0.91 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.92 | 1.82 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.03.2026 Newell's Old Boys 0:2 CA Rosario Central
- 23.08.2025 CA Rosario Central 1:0 Newell's Old Boys
- 16.02.2025 Newell's Old Boys 1:2 CA Rosario Central
- 10.08.2024 CA Rosario Central 1:0 Newell's Old Boys
- 25.02.2024 Newell's Old Boys 0:1 CA Rosario Central
- 30.09.2023 CA Rosario Central 1:0 Newell's Old Boys
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Rosario Central enter this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a clear but not overwhelming edge over Newell's Old Boys. The assessment points toward the hosts being stronger overall, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the advantage should be treated with some caution rather than as a decisive separation. The expected scoring profile is medium, indicating a match that may develop with measured attacking intent rather than become an open contest from the start.
The main signal favours CA Rosario Central, while the most plausible match patterns also include a narrow home victory or a draw. A clean sheet is considered likely, which gives the hosts’ defensive outlook particular importance in the analysis. Newell's Old Boys remain capable of keeping the game close, especially if they limit space and maintain a compact structure, but the available indications place them behind CA Rosario Central. Overall, the preview points to a controlled contest in which the home side has the stronger platform, with the margin potentially remaining narrow.
What matters before kick-off
Rosario Derby in Primera LPF Clausura
The 2026 Argentine Primera LPF Clausura match between Rosario Central and Newell's Old Boys is scheduled for September 6, 2026, at the Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.