Queens Park Rangers — Derby County: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
56.5%
Home win
Queens Park Rangers
X
23.7%
Draw
W2
19.8%
Away win
Derby County
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X80.2%
Both teams to score
Yes55.4%
Totals 2.5
Over55.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.2% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 43.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.4% / 44.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.5% / 20.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Goal distribution model
Queens Park Rangers × Derby County
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.1%
0:1
4.9%
0:2
2.9%
0:3
1.0%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.5%
1:1
11.2%
1:2
5.5%
1:3
1.9%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.6%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
5.1%
2:3
1.8%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.0%
3:1
6.2%
3:2
3.2%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.8%
4:1
2.9%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.1%
5:1
1.1%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.2%
2:19.9%
2:09.6%
1:09.5%
3:16.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Queens Park Rangers
7th place · 13 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Preston 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away West Brom 1:1
- 09.09.2026 away Charlton 0:0
- 05.09.2026 home Middlesbrough 0:1
- 02.09.2026 home Cardiff 2:1
Derby County
22nd place · 5 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Birmingham 1:2
- 09.09.2026 home West Brom 0:1
- 05.09.2026 away West Ham 0:3
- 01.09.2026 away Portsmouth 2:0
This season: Queens Park Rangers at home vs Derby County away
| Metric | Queens Park Rangers · at home | Derby County · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–1 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.98 | 0.85 |
| xG against per match | 1.15 | 1.52 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.25 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 8.25 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Queens Park Rangers wins3
Draws0
Derby County wins3
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 25.04.2026 Queens Park Rangers 2:3 Derby County
- 25.10.2025 Derby County 1:0 Queens Park Rangers
- 14.02.2025 Queens Park Rangers 4:0 Derby County
- 05.10.2024 Derby County 2:0 Queens Park Rangers
- 18.04.2022 Queens Park Rangers 1:0 Derby County
- 29.11.2021 Derby County 1:2 Queens Park Rangers
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.33 → now 4.50 |
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