Norwich City — Southampton FC: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
38.6%
Home win
Norwich City
X
25.6%
Draw
W2
35.8%
Away win
Southampton FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.4%
Both teams to score
Yes68.9%
Totals 2.5
Over66.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.2% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 61.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.8% / 33.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.0% / 55.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.3% / 73.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
Goal distribution model
Norwich City × Southampton FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.8%
0:1
3.8%
0:2
4.6%
0:3
2.6%
0:4
1.1%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
4.1%
1:1
11.0%
1:2
8.0%
1:3
4.5%
1:4
1.9%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
4.9%
2:1
8.3%
2:2
7.0%
2:3
3.9%
2:4
1.7%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
2.9%
3:1
4.9%
3:2
4.1%
3:3
2.3%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
1.3%
4:1
2.1%
4:2
1.8%
4:3
1.0%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:111.0%
2:18.3%
1:28.0%
2:27.0%
2:04.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Norwich City
17th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Bolton 3:4
- 12.09.2026 away Middlesbrough 3:4
- 09.09.2026 home Birmingham 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Sheffield United 3:1
- 01.09.2026 away Stoke 0:1
Southampton FC
4th place · 14 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Wrexham 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Bristol City 4:1
- 08.09.2026 home Swansea 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Lincoln 1:1
- 01.09.2026 away Birmingham 1:1
This season: Norwich City at home vs Southampton FC away
| Metric | Norwich City · at home | Southampton FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–2 | 0–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.65 | 1.37 |
| xG against per match | 1.38 | 1.21 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.75 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 5.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Norwich City wins2
Draws2
Southampton FC wins2
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 18.03.2026 Southampton FC 1:0 Norwich City
- 13.12.2025 Norwich City 2:1 Southampton FC
- 01.01.2024 Norwich City 1:1 Southampton FC
- 12.08.2023 Southampton FC 4:4 Norwich City
- 25.02.2022 Southampton FC 2:0 Norwich City
- 20.11.2021 Norwich City 2:1 Southampton FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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