PSV Eindhoven — SC Heerenveen: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.9% |
| 12 | 86.3% | |
| X2 | 26.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.6% / 29.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 99.0% / 1.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 82.6% / 17.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 29.6% / 70.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
PSV Eindhoven
3rd place · 16 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Twente 2:3
- 13.09.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 4:1
- 05.09.2026 away Ajax 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Utrecht 6:1
- 23.08.2026 home Groningen 5:1
SC Heerenveen
10th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 4:0
- 13.09.2026 home Telstar 0:0
- 06.09.2026 home AZ Alkmaar 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Willem II 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Zwolle 0:2
This season: PSV Eindhoven at home vs SC Heerenveen away
| Metric | PSV Eindhoven · at home | SC Heerenveen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 1–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 3.49 | 1.51 |
| xG against per match | 1.46 | 1.46 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.33 | 7.33 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.02.2026 PSV Eindhoven 3:1 SC Heerenveen
- 06.12.2025 SC Heerenveen 0:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 08.03.2025 PSV Eindhoven 2:1 SC Heerenveen
- 14.12.2024 SC Heerenveen 1:0 PSV Eindhoven
- 25.04.2024 SC Heerenveen 0:8 PSV Eindhoven
- 07.12.2023 PSV Eindhoven 2:0 SC Heerenveen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
divisie fixture against SC Heerenveen as the clearly stronger side, with the overall assessment giving the hosts a high level of confidence. Their advantage makes them the more convincing choice in this matchup, although the final outcome will depend on how the game develops. SC Heerenveen face a difficult task against opponents considered to have a substantial edge, and they will need to remain competitive throughout the contest to challenge the home side.
A high-scoring match is the main expectation, with both teams likely to find the net. This points towards an open contest in which attacking opportunities could play a significant role. The most plausible scorelines suggest PSV Eindhoven have the potential to score multiple goals, while SC Heerenveen may also have opportunities to contribute to the total. A home win remains the leading assessment, with a narrow victory for the visitors appearing less likely within the qualitative outlook. Overall, PSV Eindhoven hold the stronger position heading into the match, and an entertaining game with several goals is a reasonable expectation.
What matters before kick-off
PSV recent result
PSV enter the fixture following a 3-2 defeat away to FC Twente in their previous Eredivisie outing.
SC Heerenveen recent result
SC Heerenveen head into the match on the back of an emphatic 4-0 away victory over Sparta Rotterdam.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.