Ajax Amsterdam — NEC Nijmegen: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.3% |
| 12 | 84.0% | |
| X2 | 26.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.8% / 33.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 78.9% / 21.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 40.9% / 59.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Ajax Amsterdam
5th place · 14 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
- 15.09.2026 home Willem II 5:1
- 12.09.2026 away For Sittard 5:1
- 05.09.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:3
- 30.08.2026 away Telstar 4:0
NEC Nijmegen
11th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Cambuur 0:3
- 08.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Feyenoord 1:3
- 29.08.2026 away Zwolle 3:1
This season: Ajax Amsterdam at home vs NEC Nijmegen away
| Metric | Ajax Amsterdam · at home | NEC Nijmegen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–1 | 2–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 2.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 2.53 | 1.97 |
| xG against per match | 1.58 | 2.18 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.75 | 4.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.02.2026 Ajax Amsterdam 1:1 NEC Nijmegen
- 20.12.2025 NEC Nijmegen 2:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 11.05.2025 Ajax Amsterdam 0:3 NEC Nijmegen
- 01.12.2024 NEC Nijmegen 1:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 18.02.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 2:2 NEC Nijmegen
- 03.12.2023 NEC Nijmegen 1:2 Ajax Amsterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Ajax Amsterdam head into this Eredivisie meeting with NEC Nijmegen in the stronger overall shape. The hosts sit fifth in the table on fourteen points from seven matches, and their recent form reads three wins, a draw and a single defeat across the last five, with seventeen goals scored. NEC Nijmegen, by contrast, occupy eleventh place with nine points from eight games and have taken just one win from their last five, scoring seven while conceding ten. On the broad numbers, the hosts are clearly the stronger side.
The nuance lies in the venue. Ajax Amsterdam have only one win from four home outings this season, with ten goals scored but eight conceded, suggesting that even in dominant performances the back line has been generous. NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have travelled reasonably well, taking two wins from three away matches and scoring in each. That combination points to an open, high-scoring contest rather than a comfortable procession.
The head-to-head reinforces that reading. Across the last six meetings Ajax Amsterdam have two wins to NEC Nijmegen's one, with three draws, and five of those games produced goals at both ends. The most recent encounter finished 1-1, a reminder that the visitors can frustrate, even if the hosts enter as favourites.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.