FC Utrecht — Willem II Tilburg: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.9% |
| 12 | 79.5% | |
| X2 | 35.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.3% / 53.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
FC Utrecht
15th place · 5 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Feyenoord 0:5
- 13.09.2026 away Excelsior 2:1
- 08.09.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 3:3
- 05.09.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 1:3
- 30.08.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:6
Willem II Tilburg
18th place · 2 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home For Sittard 0:1
- 15.09.2026 away Ajax 1:5
- 11.09.2026 away AZ Alkmaar 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Excelsior 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Heerenveen 2:2
This season: FC Utrecht at home vs Willem II Tilburg away
| Metric | FC Utrecht · at home | Willem II Tilburg · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.22 | 1.34 |
| xG against per match | 2.49 | 2.90 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| Corners per match | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.03.2025 Willem II Tilburg 2:3 FC Utrecht
- 21.09.2024 FC Utrecht 3:2 Willem II Tilburg
- 15.05.2022 Willem II Tilburg 3:0 FC Utrecht
- 31.10.2021 FC Utrecht 5:1 Willem II Tilburg
- 01.05.2021 FC Utrecht 3:2 Willem II Tilburg
- 19.02.2021 Willem II Tilburg 0:6 FC Utrecht
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Utrecht host Willem II Tilburg in the Eredivisie with both sides arriving in difficult form, yet the balance of evidence still points toward the home team. Utrecht sit 15th of 18 after eight rounds with five points, while Willem II Tilburg are rooted to the bottom in 18th on just two points from seven matches. Neither defence has offered much resistance recently: Utrecht have conceded 18 goals across their last five games, and the visitors have shipped 12 in theirs. On this evidence, FC Utrecht are moderately favoured rather than overwhelmingly so.
The head-to-head history reinforces that lean. In six previous meetings FC Utrecht have won five, with Willem II Tilburg claiming just one, and the most recent encounter finished 2-3 in Utrecht's favour in 2025. All six of those fixtures produced more than two and a half goals, and four saw both teams score, a pattern consistent with the open, high-scoring profile both sides have shown this season.
Context tempers the picture. Utrecht's home record reads no wins, one draw and three defeats, with 16 goals conceded in four matches, so even against a struggling opponent they look vulnerable at the back. A tight, goal-filled contest with a slight edge for the hosts feels like the natural reading.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.