Feyenoord Rotterdam — AZ Alkmaar: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.8% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 43.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.4% / 32.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.2% / 29.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.1% / 50.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Feyenoord Rotterdam
2nd place · 17 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Utrecht 5:0
- 13.09.2026 away Zwolle 7:0
- 05.09.2026 away Nijmegen 3:1
- 30.08.2026 home Den Haag 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Cambuur 5:2
AZ Alkmaar
1st place · 19 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Telstar 1:0
- 11.09.2026 home Willem II 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Heerenveen 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away For Sittard 2:0
This season: Feyenoord Rotterdam at home vs AZ Alkmaar away
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam · at home | AZ Alkmaar · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–0 | 3–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.99 | 2.50 |
| xG against per match | 0.80 | 0.94 |
| Shots on target per match | 10.00 | 9.33 |
| Corners per match | 7.67 | 9.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2026 Feyenoord Rotterdam 1:1 AZ Alkmaar
- 21.09.2025 AZ Alkmaar 3:3 Feyenoord Rotterdam
- 05.04.2025 AZ Alkmaar 0:1 Feyenoord Rotterdam
- 02.11.2024 Feyenoord Rotterdam 3:2 AZ Alkmaar
- 04.02.2024 AZ Alkmaar 0:1 Feyenoord Rotterdam
- 12.11.2023 Feyenoord Rotterdam 1:0 AZ Alkmaar
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Feyenoord Rotterdam host AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie fixture that pits two of the division's form sides against each other. The visitors arrive sitting first in the table with 19 points from seven matches, narrowly ahead of their hosts, who occupy second place on 17 points. Both teams are unbeaten across their last five outings, each collecting four wins and a draw, which sets the stage for a tight contest between well-matched opponents.
The deeper numbers do give the hosts a slight edge, however. Feyenoord Rotterdam have scored 22 goals in their last five matches and are described as creating clearly more chances than they allow at home. The head-to-head record is also telling: in the last six meetings, Feyenoord Rotterdam have won four and drawn two, with AZ Alkmaar failing to claim victory in any of them. The most recent encounter finished 1-1.
That said, AZ Alkmaar bring a perfect away record this season, with three wins from three on the road and nine goals scored. Both sides have shown attacking quality, and with each defence conceding regularly, goals at both ends look plausible. A narrow home result is the leaning, though the margin remains thin.
What matters before kick-off
Top-two Eredivisie clash
AZ Alkmaar enter matchday eight leading the Eredivisie with 19 points, while Feyenoord sit second with 17 points ahead of their meeting at De Kuip.
Head-to-head record
Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last nine head-to-head encounters against AZ Alkmaar, winning seven of those matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.