Go Ahead Eagles — Sparta Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.0% |
| 12 | 77.8% | |
| X2 | 43.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.7% / 29.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.3% / 26.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.5% / 66.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.6% / 81.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Go Ahead Eagles
6th place · 13 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Nijmegen 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Groningen 1:1
- 08.09.2026 away Utrecht 3:3
- 05.09.2026 away Utrecht 3:1
- 29.08.2026 away AZ Alkmaar 2:5
Sparta Rotterdam
12th place · 5 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Heerenveen 0:4
- 13.09.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:4
- 04.09.2026 home Zwolle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Excelsior 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Utrecht 3:3
This season: Go Ahead Eagles at home vs Sparta Rotterdam away
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles · at home | Sparta Rotterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.84 | 2.11 |
| xG against per match | 0.84 | 2.13 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 5.67 |
| Corners per match | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 Sparta Rotterdam 2:2 Go Ahead Eagles
- 23.08.2025 Go Ahead Eagles 0:3 Sparta Rotterdam
- 14.02.2025 Go Ahead Eagles 1:0 Sparta Rotterdam
- 15.09.2024 Sparta Rotterdam 1:2 Go Ahead Eagles
- 21.01.2024 Sparta Rotterdam 0:2 Go Ahead Eagles
- 22.10.2023 Go Ahead Eagles 0:0 Sparta Rotterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Go Ahead Eagles arrive in better form and in a stronger position in the Eredivisie, sitting sixth with thirteen points from eight matches. Their recent run of three draws alongside a win and a loss suggests a side that is hard to beat without being dominant, and the home record backs that up: two wins and a draw from three matches at their own ground, with eight goals scored and three conceded. The qualitative read of their home performances, creating clearly more chances than they allow, aligns with those numbers.
Sparta Rotterdam travel in markedly tougher shape. They sit twelfth with five points from seven games and have not won in their last five, losing three and drawing two. On the road they have at least shown some bite, winning one of three away fixtures, though the balance of chances created and allowed is only roughly level.
The head-to-head is tilted toward the hosts, with three wins from the last six meetings against one for the visitors, and the most recent encounter finished Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 Go Ahead Eagles. Taken together, the signals point to a slight edge for Go Ahead Eagles in a match where both sides can plausibly find the net.
What matters before kick-off
Eredivisie Fixture
Go Ahead Eagles host Sparta Rotterdam on October 10, 2026, at De Adelaarshorst in Deventer as part of the Eredivisie campaign.
League Standings
Heading into the match, Go Ahead Eagles occupy 9th place in the Eredivisie table with 10 points, while Sparta Rotterdam sit 12th with 5 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.