Excelsior Rotterdam — FC Groningen: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.4% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.4% / 34.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.5% / 56.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.0% / 75.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Excelsior Rotterdam
8th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Ajax 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
- 08.09.2026 away Nijmegen 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Willem II 3:0
- 29.08.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 2:1
FC Groningen
9th place · 11 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Zwolle 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Twente 2:2
- 28.08.2026 home For Sittard 2:3
- 23.08.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:5
This season: Excelsior Rotterdam at home vs FC Groningen away
| Metric | Excelsior Rotterdam · at home | FC Groningen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–2 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 0.77 | 1.48 |
| xG against per match | 1.54 | 2.55 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 02.05.2026 FC Groningen 2:3 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 05.12.2025 Excelsior Rotterdam 0:2 FC Groningen
- 25.02.2023 FC Groningen 3:0 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 08.01.2023 Excelsior Rotterdam 1:0 FC Groningen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Excelsior Rotterdam and FC Groningen look evenly matched ahead of their Eredivisie meeting, with moderate confidence in that assessment. The available indicators point toward a competitive contest rather than a clear advantage for either side. Neither team stands out as the stronger option on the supplied outcome signal, leaving the match finely balanced.
The scoring outlook suggests an open game, with both teams likely to find the net. The BTTS signal supports that interpretation, while the likely scorelines include 1:1, 1:2, and 2:1, reinforcing the expectation of a closely contested match with goals at both ends. Overall, Excelsior Rotterdam and FC Groningen appear well matched, with the main analytical angle centered on both teams scoring rather than a decisive result.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.