PSV Eindhoven — Fortuna Sittard: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.6% |
| 12 | 88.9% | |
| X2 | 18.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.6% / 1.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 79.6% / 20.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 25.5% / 74.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
PSV Eindhoven enter this Eredivisie meeting with a clear advantage over Fortuna Sittard. The qualitative assessment points strongly towards a home win, with PSV identified as the stronger side and the confidence level rated high. That gives the hosts the initiative in both territory and attacking ambition, while Fortuna Sittard are likely to face sustained pressure during the match.
The game is also expected to be open and high-scoring, with both teams considered likely to find the net. That combination suggests Fortuna Sittard may have opportunities despite the wider balance favouring PSV Eindhoven, particularly if the visitors can exploit spaces during transitions. The most likely scorelines listed are 3-0, 3-1 and 2-0, reflecting a range of outcomes in which PSV control the match and create the clearer chances. Fortuna Sittard will need an organised defensive display and efficient finishing to keep the contest close, while PSV’s main task will be to turn their superiority into a decisive margin.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.