Go Ahead Eagles — Willem II Tilburg: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.9% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.7% / 17.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.4% / 61.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.9% / 90.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Go Ahead Eagles have a slight edge over Willem II Tilburg in this Eredivisie meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested match rather than a clear home advantage. The available assessment leans towards the hosts, but the margin between the teams appears limited, leaving the result open to several possibilities.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring viewed as a balanced possibility. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, which reflects the uncertainty around the match while still giving Go Ahead Eagles a modest advantage. Willem II Tilburg should remain competitive if they can keep the contest tight, while the hosts will look to turn their home setting into the deciding factor.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.