Match intelligence

NEC Nijmegen — SC Telstar: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026

League: Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

× Prediction missed
NEC Nijmegen1
:
2SC Telstar
Locked signal W1 Probability 65.0% Verdict Miss
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 65.0% Home win NEC Nijmegen
X 20.2% Draw
W2 14.9% Away win SC Telstar
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X85.1%
Both teams to score
Yes63.1%
Totals 2.5
Over69.4%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X85.1%
1279.8%
X235.0%
Both teams to scoreYes/No63.1% / 36.9%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 96.1% / 3.9%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 88.4% / 11.6%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 69.4% / 30.6%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 48.1% / 51.9%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 29.0% / 71.0%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 15.3% / 84.7%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

NEC Nijmegen × SC Telstar
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 3.9%
0:1 2.0%
0:2 1.8%
0:3 0.7%
0:4 0.2%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 5.7%
1:1 8.9%
1:2 4.4%
1:3 1.7%
1:4 0.5%
1:5 0.1%
2
2:0 8.3%
2:1 9.5%
2:2 5.4%
2:3 2.0%
2:4 0.6%
2:5 0.1%
3
3:0 6.8%
3:1 7.7%
3:2 4.4%
3:3 1.7%
3:4 0.5%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 4.1%
4:1 4.7%
4:2 2.7%
4:3 1.0%
4:4 0.3%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 2.0%
5:1 2.3%
5:2 1.3%
5:3 0.5%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.5%
1:18.9%
2:08.3%
3:17.7%
3:06.8%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 08.08.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.05.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 2:1
  • 10.05.2026 away Groningen 1:2
  • 02.05.2026 home Telstar 1:1
  • 25.04.2026 away Twente 1:1
  • 12.04.2026 home Feyenoord 1:1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.05.2026 away Volendam 2:1
  • 10.05.2026 home Heracles 3:0
  • 02.05.2026 away Nijmegen 1:1
  • 22.04.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 4:1
  • 11.04.2026 away Utrecht 1:4

Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings

NEC Nijmegen wins0
Draws2
SC Telstar wins0
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored2/2
Over 2.5 goals1/2
  • 02.05.2026 NEC Nijmegen 1:1 SC Telstar
  • 13.12.2025 SC Telstar 2:2 NEC Nijmegen

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

NEC Nijmegen enter this Eredivisie fixture with a clear qualitative advantage over SC Telstar, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the contest should not be viewed as straightforward. The available assessment points towards the hosts controlling more of the match and creating the stronger attacking threat, but SC Telstar retain enough potential to make the game competitive.

The scoring outlook is positive, with a high-scoring match considered likely and both teams expected to find the net. That combination points to an open encounter rather than a tightly contained one, particularly if SC Telstar can respond effectively when NEC Nijmegen move forward. The most plausible scorelines are 2:1, 1:1 and 2:0, reflecting a home win as the leading scenario while leaving room for a draw if the visitors make better use of their opportunities. Overall, NEC Nijmegen hold the stronger position, but the moderate confidence and expected attacking contribution from SC Telstar advise against treating the outcome as settled.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Team news

Defensive injury concerns for NEC

Ahead of the season opener, NEC Nijmegen face defensive shortages as defenders Bram Nuytinck, Perr Schuurs, and Yassin Moslih are sidelined with injuries.

Schedule

Tight schedule for NEC

Just four days prior to facing Telstar, NEC Nijmegen played a 0-0 draw away against Olympiacos in a Champions League qualifier.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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