NEC Nijmegen — SC Telstar: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.2% |
| 12 | 80.9% | |
| X2 | 30.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.3% / 71.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
NEC Nijmegen enter this Eredivisie fixture with a clear but moderate analytical advantage over SC Telstar. The available assessment points towards the home side as the stronger team, although the confidence level does not suggest an outcome should be treated as certain. NEC Nijmegen’s home setting supports that edge, while SC Telstar will need to remain disciplined and efficient if they are to disrupt the expected balance of play.
The match is projected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. That creates room for SC Telstar to stay competitive even if NEC Nijmegen control more of the game. The leading scoreline indications are a 2-1 or 2-0 home win, while 1-1 is also considered a realistic alternative. Overall, the profile favours NEC Nijmegen, but the expected attacking approach from both sides could make this a more contested match than the basic home advantage implies.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.