AZ Alkmaar — ADO Den Haag: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.9% |
| 12 | 79.2% | |
| X2 | 34.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.1% / 39.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.7% / 13.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar go into this Eredivisie meeting with a moderate but clear qualitative advantage over ADO Den Haag. The home side is rated as the stronger team, although the assessment does not suggest an outcome that should be treated as certain. ADO Den Haag therefore remain capable of making the match competitive, particularly if they can handle AZ Alkmaar’s attacking pressure and stay organised without the ball.
The overall outlook points towards an open, high-scoring contest, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination should create a game in which AZ Alkmaar’s greater strength is tested by ADO Den Haag’s ability to contribute offensively. The main expectation is a home win, but the draw remains a relevant alternative within the available indications. A disciplined start from ADO Den Haag could keep the balance close, while AZ Alkmaar will look to establish control and turn their home advantage into sustained pressure.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.