AZ Alkmaar — ADO Den Haag: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.0% |
| 12 | 81.9% | |
| X2 | 29.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.3% / 54.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.6% / 86.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home NAC Breda 3:3
- 10.05.2026 away Feyenoord 1:1
- 03.05.2026 home Twente 2:2
- 23.04.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 0:0
- 12.04.2026 home Heerenveen 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2021 away Twente 2:3
- 13.05.2021 home Willem II 1:4
- 09.05.2021 away Zwolle 1:0
- 02.05.2021 home Feyenoord 3:2
- 25.04.2021 home For Sittard 0:3
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 16.01.2021 AZ Alkmaar 2:1 ADO Den Haag
- 25.10.2020 ADO Den Haag 2:2 AZ Alkmaar
- 07.03.2020 AZ Alkmaar 4:0 ADO Den Haag
- 22.09.2019 ADO Den Haag 0:1 AZ Alkmaar
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AZ Alkmaar meet ADO Den Haag in the Eredivisie on 8 August 2026, with the available assessment giving the home side a clear but moderate edge. AZ Alkmaar are rated as the stronger team overall, while ADO Den Haag face a demanding away fixture. The expected profile points towards an open, high-scoring match rather than a tightly controlled contest, although the balance between both teams finding the net remains difficult to call.
The projected scorelines of 2:0, 2:1 and 3:0 all favour AZ Alkmaar, but they indicate different possible routes to that advantage. A controlled home performance could limit ADO Den Haag's attacking impact, while the 2:1 scenario reflects the possibility of both sides contributing in an energetic game. With the confidence level only moderate, the main analytical signal is a home win rather than certainty about the exact margin or whether ADO Den Haag will score.
What matters before kick-off
AZ win Johan Cruyff Shield
On August 2, 2026, AZ Alkmaar claimed the Johan Cruyff Shield by defeating reigning Eredivisie champions PSV Eindhoven 4-0 at the Philips Stadion.
ADO Den Haag return to Eredivisie
ADO Den Haag returned to the Dutch top flight for the 2026–27 season after a five-year absence, having won the Keuken Kampioen Divisie title.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.