Match intelligence

PEC Zwolle — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026

League: Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
PEC Zwolle0
:
2Ajax Amsterdam
Locked signal W2 Probability 63.7% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 15.8% Home win PEC Zwolle
X 20.5% Draw
W2 63.7% Away win Ajax Amsterdam
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X286.3%
Both teams to score
Yes60.8%
Totals 2.5
Over67.5%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X34.0%
1279.7%
X286.3%
Both teams to scoreYes/No60.8% / 39.2%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 95.7% / 4.3%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 87.4% / 12.6%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 67.5% / 32.5%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 45.9% / 54.1%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 27.1% / 72.9%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 14.0% / 86.0%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

PEC Zwolle × Ajax Amsterdam
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 4.3%
0:1 6.2%
0:2 9.0%
0:3 7.3%
0:4 4.4%
0:5 2.1%
1
1:0 2.0%
1:1 9.2%
1:2 9.6%
1:3 7.7%
1:4 4.7%
1:5 2.3%
2
2:0 1.7%
2:1 4.2%
2:2 5.1%
2:3 4.1%
2:4 2.5%
2:5 1.2%
3
3:0 0.6%
3:1 1.5%
3:2 1.8%
3:3 1.4%
3:4 0.9%
3:5 0.4%
4
4:0 0.2%
4:1 0.4%
4:2 0.5%
4:3 0.4%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.0%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.6%
1:19.2%
0:29.0%
1:37.7%
0:37.3%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.05.2026 home Feyenoord 0:2
  • 10.05.2026 away For Sittard 2:3
  • 03.05.2026 home Heracles 1:0
  • 23.04.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:6
  • 12.04.2026 home Excelsior 2:2

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.05.2026 away Heerenveen 0:0
  • 10.05.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
  • 02.05.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 2:2
  • 25.04.2026 away NAC Breda 2:0
  • 11.04.2026 away Heracles 3:0

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

PEC Zwolle wins0
Draws2
Ajax Amsterdam wins4
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
  • 01.03.2026 PEC Zwolle 0:0 Ajax Amsterdam
  • 13.09.2025 Ajax Amsterdam 3:1 PEC Zwolle
  • 09.03.2025 PEC Zwolle 0:1 Ajax Amsterdam
  • 24.11.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 2:0 PEC Zwolle
  • 31.03.2024 PEC Zwolle 1:3 Ajax Amsterdam
  • 17.12.2023 Ajax Amsterdam 2:2 PEC Zwolle

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

PEC Zwolle face Ajax Amsterdam in an Eredivisie match where the visitors appear clearly stronger, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be overstated. The available assessment points towards an advantage for Ajax Amsterdam, while PEC Zwolle remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly on home ground.

The scoring outlook is positive, with a high-scoring match considered likely and both teams expected to find the net. That combination points to an open game rather than a tightly controlled defensive battle. The most plausible scorelines include 1:2, 1:1 and 0:2, reflecting both Ajax Amsterdam’s stronger overall position and the possibility that PEC Zwolle can contribute to the score. The key question is whether PEC Zwolle can sustain enough attacking pressure to turn their chances into goals, while Ajax Amsterdam will look to convert their superiority into a controlled away performance.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Eredivisie season opener

PEC Zwolle and Ajax face each other at the MAC³PARK Stadion on August 9, 2026, in the opening fixture of the 2026/27 Eredivisie season.

Schedule

Ajax European victory

On August 6, 2026, Ajax defeated Irish side Shelbourne FC 3-1 at home in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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