PEC Zwolle — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 34.0% |
| 12 | 79.7% | |
| X2 | 86.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.8% / 39.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Feyenoord 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away For Sittard 2:3
- 03.05.2026 home Heracles 1:0
- 23.04.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:6
- 12.04.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Heerenveen 0:0
- 10.05.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 2:2
- 25.04.2026 away NAC Breda 2:0
- 11.04.2026 away Heracles 3:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.03.2026 PEC Zwolle 0:0 Ajax Amsterdam
- 13.09.2025 Ajax Amsterdam 3:1 PEC Zwolle
- 09.03.2025 PEC Zwolle 0:1 Ajax Amsterdam
- 24.11.2024 Ajax Amsterdam 2:0 PEC Zwolle
- 31.03.2024 PEC Zwolle 1:3 Ajax Amsterdam
- 17.12.2023 Ajax Amsterdam 2:2 PEC Zwolle
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
PEC Zwolle face Ajax Amsterdam in an Eredivisie match where the visitors appear clearly stronger, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be overstated. The available assessment points towards an advantage for Ajax Amsterdam, while PEC Zwolle remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly on home ground.
The scoring outlook is positive, with a high-scoring match considered likely and both teams expected to find the net. That combination points to an open game rather than a tightly controlled defensive battle. The most plausible scorelines include 1:2, 1:1 and 0:2, reflecting both Ajax Amsterdam’s stronger overall position and the possibility that PEC Zwolle can contribute to the score. The key question is whether PEC Zwolle can sustain enough attacking pressure to turn their chances into goals, while Ajax Amsterdam will look to convert their superiority into a controlled away performance.
What matters before kick-off
Eredivisie season opener
PEC Zwolle and Ajax face each other at the MAC³PARK Stadion on August 9, 2026, in the opening fixture of the 2026/27 Eredivisie season.
Ajax European victory
On August 6, 2026, Ajax defeated Irish side Shelbourne FC 3-1 at home in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
