PEC Zwolle — Ajax Amsterdam: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 35.8% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 84.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.9% / 39.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.6% / 33.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
PEC Zwolle face a demanding Eredivisie fixture against Ajax Amsterdam, with the visitors holding a clear but not overwhelming edge in the assessment. Ajax Amsterdam are expected to have the stronger overall profile, while PEC Zwolle will need to stay compact and make efficient use of their opportunities. The moderate confidence level suggests that the difference between the teams is meaningful, but not decisive enough to remove uncertainty from the contest.
The scoring outlook points towards an open match rather than a tightly controlled defensive battle. Both PEC Zwolle and Ajax Amsterdam are considered likely to find the net, which could lead to a game with momentum shifts and sustained attacking phases at both ends. Ajax Amsterdam appear better placed to turn that attacking potential into a positive result, although PEC Zwolle should have opportunities if they can exploit spaces during transitions. The main expectation is therefore an entertaining, high-scoring encounter with the visitors holding the stronger position.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.