FC Groningen — FC Utrecht: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.8% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 56.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.6% / 65.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Heracles 2:1
- 10.05.2026 home Nijmegen 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Excelsior 2:3
- 25.04.2026 away Feyenoord 1:3
- 11.04.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home For Sittard 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Ajax 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home NAC Breda 2:0
- 26.04.2026 away Excelsior 0:5
- 11.04.2026 home Telstar 4:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2026 FC Groningen 1:2 FC Utrecht
- 14.09.2025 FC Utrecht 0:1 FC Groningen
- 13.04.2025 FC Utrecht 3:1 FC Groningen
- 20.10.2024 FC Groningen 0:1 FC Utrecht
- 07.04.2023 FC Groningen 1:2 FC Utrecht
- 06.11.2022 FC Utrecht 2:1 FC Groningen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Groningen have a slight edge over FC Utrecht in this Eredivisie meeting, although the moderate confidence points to a competitive contest rather than a clearly one-sided fixture. The home side may be able to use its venue to influence the balance, but FC Utrecht should remain capable of creating pressure and staying involved throughout the match.
The outlook is for a medium-scoring game, with both teams scoring remaining difficult to separate. A draw is therefore a realistic possibility alongside a narrow home win. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0, which reflect a match likely to be decided by small margins rather than sustained dominance from either side.
What matters before kick-off
New FC Utrecht manager
Anthony Correia is taking charge of FC Utrecht in his first official match after replacing the retired Ron Jans.
FC Utrecht squad availability
FC Utrecht go into the match missing injured midfielders Victor Jensen, Alonzo Engwanda and Oualid Agougil.
FC Groningen availability issues
FC Groningen are without forward Oskar Zawada as well as midfielders Stije Resink and Yénio Holder.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.