Portland Timbers — Seattle Sounders: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.1% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.7% / 33.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.9% / 14.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Portland Timbers host Seattle Sounders in an MLS meeting that projects to be an open and competitive contest. The available assessment gives Portland Timbers a moderate, slight edge, but not enough to separate the teams decisively. Seattle Sounders remain close enough in the evaluation to make this a balanced matchup, particularly if they can sustain pressure away from home.
The clearest attacking signal points toward a high-scoring game, with both Portland Timbers and Seattle Sounders likely to find the net. That outlook leaves several plausible paths, including a draw or a narrow win for either side. Overall, the home team has the stronger position in the analysis, while the broader result protection points toward Portland avoiding defeat. The margin is expected to be limited, and the match could remain unsettled deep into the second half.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.