Portland Timbers — Seattle Sounders: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.6% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.9% / 13.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.1% / 32.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Portland Timbers have a slight edge over Seattle Sounders in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a closely contested match rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment points toward a balanced contest in which Portland Timbers may have a small advantage, while Seattle Sounders remain capable of making the game difficult and competing for a positive result.
The main expectation is an open, high-scoring encounter, with both Portland Timbers and Seattle Sounders likely to find the net. The projected scorelines reflect the narrow gap between the teams: 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2 are all considered plausible scenarios. That range points to an outcome that may remain uncertain deep into the match, with Portland Timbers slightly better positioned but Seattle Sounders still carrying enough attacking threat to avoid being discounted.
What matters before kick-off
Previous meeting result
On July 16, 2026, the Portland Timbers secured a 5-1 away win against Seattle Sounders FC at Lumen Field.
Seattle's recent form
Seattle Sounders FC head into the Cascadia derby on the back of five consecutive regular-season MLS defeats.
Cascadia Cup clash
The match marks the fourth and final fixture for the Portland Timbers in their 2026 Cascadia Cup campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.